Destined for War: Can America And China Escape the Thucydides's Trap
Graham Allison
China will likely be one of the greatest geopolitical challenges that the United States will face in the next several decades. Though China has a long and rich history, its presence among nations in the modern era began with Nixon’s opening to China and accelerated in the 1990’s when it was included among the most favored nations for trade. Now China is seeking to establish itself as dominant player globally and the reginal hegemon through initiatives like the “One Belt, One Road” and “Made in China 2025” programs.
Understandably, a rising power creates tension and threatens an established power. This phenomenon was first described by Thucydides regarding when the rise of Athens threatened the dominance of Sparta and its allies. Since the days of Periclean diplomacy, the tension created between a sitting and rising power has been repeated at least 16 times; and of these, 12 have resulted in war. This paradigm of tension leading to war is what is described by Harvard Scholar, Graham Allison, as the Thucydides's Trap.
In this book Allison, discusses the historical context provided by the 16 examples of Thucydidian geopolitics. He describes the post-Cold War preeminence of the United States and the ascendence of China on the world stage over the last several decades and the potential for US-China conflict. War, though, is not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Several examples have led to productive to national relationships. Allison concludes the book with historical insights regarding how Washington and Beijing can avoid navigate the rocky shoals illuminated by Thucydides millennia earlier.
Recently, China and US-China relations have become a bigger topic of conversation in our society and among policy makers, particularly as China has become more assertive economically and militarily both in their region as well as internationally. This book was recommended to me as one of the top 5 books to read about China. It certainly was helpful in putting the historical and political nature of the US-China relationship into context.
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